Fastest growth in five years for the European branded coffee shop market

Download our infographic on the European branded coffee shop market | Photo credit: © World Coffee Portal

• 33 out of 50 European markets expanded by outlets over the past 12 months, including 15 of the largest 20 

• UK remains the largest branded coffee shop market in Europe (11,456 outlets) ahead of Germany (7,428) and Russia (5,157) 

• McCafé is the largest branded coffee chain across Europe with 3,983 outlets across 26 individual markets, followed by Starbucks (3,534) and Costa Coffee (3,097) 

Coffee and café culture remain integral to European lifestyles 

Demand for coffee out of home remains robust across Europe and branded coffee chains are broadly accelerating growth across the continent despite higher operational costs and lower consumer confidence in many markets. Underlining the strength of demand for premium coffee experiences, even amid economic uncertainty, 33 out of 50 European markets expanded by outlets over the past 12 months, including 15 of the largest 20. 

Major markets, including the UK, Germany, Russia and France, expanded by more than 100 outlets. The total European market grew 4.7% to reach 51,042 outlets over the last 12 months – the highest number of net new stores recorded by World Coffee Portal in five years.  

Record-high coffee prices add to operator cost pressures 

Sustained cost pressures remain a major challenge for European industry leaders interviewed by World Coffee Portal. Adding to high inflation, energy, and raw materials costs, record-high green coffee prices are the latest major headwind European branded coffee chains face. 

Many operators have responded by raising beverage prices, with a regular cappuccino costing €3.69 on average across Europe – a 7.6% annual rise. In an increasingly competitive market where value-for-money is a key consumer concern, many coffee chains face a tougher trading environment. 31% of industry leaders surveyed described trading conditions as ‘difficult’, up from 19% a year ago. 

Nevertheless, high commercial coffee prices are also making premium and quality-differentiated propositions more attractive, generating new opportunities for growing specialty coffee markets in France, Germany and the Iberian Peninsula.​ 

European industry leaders broadly optimistic – but many operators feeling the pinch 

European industry leaders surveyed by World Coffee Portal are broadly optimistic, with 75% assessing there is strong potential for further branded coffee chain growth across the continent. However, many operators are facing a tough economy, with strong sales outstripped by soaring operational costs.

Poland was the largest European market to contract over the last 12 months, with net 26 stores closures following five consecutive years of growth. The Swiss and Swedish markets also contracted 6.3% and 5.7% by outlets respectively. 

However, demonstrating the diverse range of economies in the European region, the Turkish branded coffee shop market grew 12.6% to surpass 3,800 outlets despite annual CPI inflation topping 44% in 2024. Remarkably, Ukraine’s branded coffee shop market grew 8% to exceed 350 outlets amid Russia’s ongoing invasion.  

Project Café Europe 2025 shows the European branded coffee shop market is broadly in good health, with established markets, such as the UK, Germany, France, Spain and Italy all achieving sustained outlet growth. Smaller markets, such as Croatia, Lithuania and Armenia, are also developing strongly. 

World Coffee Portal forecasts the total European branded coffee shop market will reach 53,200 outlets within 12 months and exceed 60,900 outlets at 3.6% CAGR by March 2030. 

Commenting on the report findings, Allegra Group founder and CEO, Jeffrey Young said: 

“It’s exciting to see continued growth among Europe’s chain operators, but also a promising specialty coffee scene as more consumers embrace boutique hospitality experiences – and are no doubt upping coffee quality at home as well.  

That being said, the European market remains underpinned by a growing set of branded coffee chains performing well in a challenging economy. We’re also seeing an increasingly sophisticated food-focused and bakery segment harnessing the appeal of premium coffee to grow their businesses.  

With inflation, geopolitical tensions and record high green coffee prices, there is a lot of uncertainty across Europe and operators need to be smart to navigate these challenges. However, as this report shows, there is tremendous consumer appetite for coffee and café culture to support a thriving European market in the years ahead.”
 

Project Café Europe 2025 is World Coffee Portal’s strategic guide to navigating the diverse European branded coffee shop market, providing operators, investors and suppliers with the latest market data and insights to build powerful business strategies — and delivering the crucial information you need to stay ahead of the competition. Download the brochure to find out more and enquire about pricing.