Following more than two years of store closures, Kobza said recent population growth in Canada could necessitate new Tim Hortons units in currently underserved areas of the country
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A Tim Hortons store in Niagara Falls, Canada | Photo credit: Lars Hendriks
Ontario-based coffee chain Tim Hortons is gearing up for outlet growth in Canada for the first time in two years as it seeks to maximise opportunities arising from Canada’s recent population boom.
Speaking at an investor conference, Restaurant Brands International (RBI) CEO Joshua Kobza said sustained population growth in Canada could support more stores that the coffee chain had originally planned.
“The country’s population has grown pretty materially, which means more customers potentially for Tims. And I think that changes the number of units we should have in the country,” he said.
Canada’s population grew 3.1% in 2023 to 40.1 million, the highest growth rate in the country in over 60 years, following a notable immigration influx, according to Canadian government figures.
In September 2023, Statistics Canada reported the population of Alberta was growing faster than any province had since it began recording data in 1871. Seven other provinces also saw their population rates spike to record heights in 2023, with Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Ontario all at 3% or above.
Canada’s population growth is forecast to fall to 1.9% this year.
“If we add another 1% of the population, we probably need about that many more stores. And so we’ve been looking very carefully at what parts of the country where we’re least penetrated and looking at adding more stores there, especially freestandings and drive-thrus,” Kobza added.
Tim Hortons is the largest coffee chain in Canada, ending the third quarter of 2024 with 3,861 outlets. However, the coffee chain’s domestic footprint has shrunk over the last few years, down 13 sites compared to 12 months ago and over 140 fewer than the 4,000 stores it operated at the start of 2020.
Nevertheless, Tim Hortons’ sales in its home market remain strong, with RBI highlighting the brand as the standout performer in the third quarter. The coffee chain achieved 3% year-on-year sales growth in Canada in the three months ended 30 September 2024 to reach $1.76bn.