What will the business of coffee look like in 2050?

Graphics by John Osborne

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It’s the year 2050. A barista avatar greets you in the coffee metaverse and presents the latest micro-lots from Italy and Australia. After selecting a roast profile, you’re prompted to choose your coffee purity and opt for a 25% synthetic blend with a fibre supplement. You select the cell-grown milk foam latte before $18, including drone delivery and climate tax, is charged to your wallet.

This scene is science fiction set 25 years in the future. It may seem outlandish, but so would today’s coffee industry back in 2000. 25 years ago, dial-up was the de-facto internet connection, most coffee shops did not have a website, polystyrene cups were standard and instant was everywhere.

The journey so far

In 1999, Allegra published the first Project Café UK report. Just one year after Starbucks made its European debut in London, the ground-breaking research revealed the UK branded coffee shop market comprised just 590 outlets but was enjoying a whopping 45% annual growth rate.
 

“No one could have predicted China would overtake the US as the world’s largest branded coffee shop market”

Today, more than 10,200 branded coffee shops in the UK generate some £5.3bn in sales annually – a nearly a 1,800% increase on the £280m total branded coffee shop turnover recorded by Allegra in 1999. Europe is now home to more than 46,000 outlets and 25 years ago no one could have predicted that China would overtake the US as the world’s largest branded coffee shop market within two decades. Meanwhile, once-niche offerings, such as single-origin, cold coffee beverages and direct trade, have become widespread.

Over the last 25 years, we’ve gone from cash transactions to chip and pin, contactless payments and digital wallets. Today, many coffee shops are entirely cashless and the most successful integrate sophisticated tech stacks enabling automation, telemetry and data insights at scale.

We’ve also seen the advent and rapid adoption of smartphones into everyday life. It wasn’t until 2007 that the iPhone revolutionised how we interact with the world with apps and seamless connectivity. Myspace in 2003, Facebook in 2004, YouTube in 2005, Twitter in 2006, Instagram in 2010 and Tiktok in 2016 – social media as we know it did not exist in 2000 but today enables coffee businesses to engage vast global audiences and catalyse new trends at lightning pace.


Rise of the machines

Technological advancements have reshaped the coffee shop experience over the last 25 years. The advent of Wi-Fi, mobile internet and smartphones has recast expectations for hospitality and retail, transforming coffee shops into personal workspaces, social hubs and event spaces. Today’s coffee industry is an expansive ecosystem of coffee chains, scaled boutique operators, specialty independents, premium self-serve and non-specialists.

If Y2K was the prevailing concern 25 years ago, AI and the ramifications for the way we live, work, jobs – and enjoy hospitality – dominate today’s cultural discourse. With advanced robotics and AI, coffee in 2050 will truly be available anytime and anywhere. “AI is going to manage data and bring unparalleled consumer insights at mass… with AI and automation mass personalisation is far more possible,” Keith Tan, CEO of Crown Digital, told 5THWAVE in 2024.

Recent advancements have already proven AI can be highly effective at sorting green coffee defects and predicting the crucial ‘first crack’ during roasting. “I can see a future where we measure green coffee at origin and suggest how the coffee could be sample roasted to achieve the flavour profile the roast master wants,” Scott Stouffer, Chief Sales Officer at Probat told 5THWAVE in March 2024.

The next 25 years will also likely see the advent of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) – machines that can learn and innovate independently from humans. In 1999, American computer scientist Ray Kurzweil predicted that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) would exist by 2029 – a forecast the Google AI lead reaffirmed in a 2024 interview.
 

“Rising global temperatures mean more coffee could be grown in Europe”

“Today’s computers can do half a trillion calculations per second. That would have been seen as an impossibility just 10 years ago,” he said.

The genie is out of the bottle, and by 2050 AGI could be leading every aspect of the coffee supply chain, from farming to roasting, brewing and serving coffee. Climate resilience, inventory management, roasting, business plans and pouring the perfect espresso could all theoretically be handled by AGI.

AGI could control vast volumes of drone traffic through the skies, consigning moped delivery to the past. Amazon already offers drone delivery in California and Texas and in August 2024 was granted permission to test a UK service. In the Republic of Ireland, drone-delivered coffee is a reality. Founded in 2018, Dublin-based Manna Drone Delivery has completed 170,000 flights for takeaway food deliveries by drone in the suburb of Balbriggan. According to the firm’s CEO Bobby Healy, coffee is the “number one” ordered product.

“The coffee loses roughly two degrees in flight time, and most local coffee shops we work with just heat the coffee an extra few degrees to counteract this… we don’t spill a drop,” he told reporters in March 2024.

A retail renaissance

With physical and digital realms blending beyond differentiation, 2050 could be an era of virtual coffee shops anchored by physical outlets or centralised preparation hubs offering consumers a vast array of beverage customisation and seamless connection with coffee roasters and farmers.

“We’re all familiar with the concept of a third place between home and work. But the fourth place is the new notion of the ‘shop’ that plays a big part in activating the public realm and blending with other experiences,” retail expert and futurist Ibrahim Ibrahim told World Coffee Portal in 2021.

When it comes to future retail, China is already leading the way with facial recognition, new ways to transact, such as Tencent’s Palm Payments (yes, payments with the palm of your hand) and AI-powered self-driving cars.

The retail innovations spearheaded by Luckin Coffee to open more than 20,000 locations in just six years have been profoundly influential, spearheading a global movement towards smaller, more agile, digital-first coffee shops. Coffee shop apps have opened a new front in customer experience defined by personalised promotions, predictive ordering and customisation.

Telemetry and cloud computing now mean it is possible to remotely calibrate coffee machines to serve the same latte whether ordered in London or Tokyo, giving operators the mobility to scale globally and deliver locally. In 2050, augmented reality viewed through eyewear or even contact lenses could deliver tailored retail experiences anywhere and everywhere.
 

“AGI could be leading every aspect of the coffee supply chain”

In 25-years’ time, coffee chains could be managed exclusively with advanced robotics and AGI. While many convenience-focused operators will choose this approach, others will trade on the prestige of ‘authentic’ staffed venues and slower-paced hospitality.

Boutique coffee shops could become sanctuaries of in-person experiences to escape the digital rat race and embrace spontaneous human interaction. Some operators could trade exclusively on the novelty of offline experiences, harking back to a golden age of face-to-face interactions with traditional equipment and the nostalgia of barista service.

The next 25 years will see coffee follow the trajectory of wine as a luxury product, with varietals, terroir, processing methods and roasting profiles forming a highly sophisticated super-specialty coffee lexicon defined by exclusive micro-batches and rare cultivars.

“The barista will become more like a sommelier with a wealth of knowledge to marry different flavours and ingredients,” coffee consultant, Kamal Bengougam, told 5THWAVE in 2020.

An uncertain future?

In 2025, we are already witnessing the decline of cheap ‘everday’ coffee driven by the climate emergency, decades of unsustainably low prices and rising demand. The United Nations (UN) estimates the global population will rise from 7.6 billion in 2025 to 9.7 billion in 2050. During this time, demand for coffee fuelled by emerging markets in Asia and Africa is expected to double.

International Coffee Organization (ICO) data shows that global coffee demand is already outstripping supply, including by around seven million 60kg bags in 2022. A 2016 report by Conservation International forecast that the coffee industry would need to increase production threefold by 2050 to meet projected demand – up to an additional 14 million tons of coffee per year.

However, if global average temperatures increase by 1.5-2o C by 2050, Brazil could lose up to 76% of its highly suitable and 28% of its moderately suitable land for growing coffee compared to the year 2000, according to a report by Australia’s Climate Institute. Under this scenario, Vietnam could lose 48% of its highly suitable coffee land by 2050 and 25% of its moderately suitable area.

In 2024, the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) recorded the average temperature was 1.6 o C above pre-industrial levels, meaning humanity has already breached a key climate threshold. “Longer term, I think we’ll be paying more for coffee,” Dr Aaron Davis, Head of Coffee Research at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, told the Financial Times in 2023. In 2024 alone, the price of arabica rose by around 70% on the Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) and major coffee roasters are already passing increases on to businesses and consumers.

“We are not immune to the price of coffee, far from it,” said David Rennie, Head of Nestlé Coffee Brands, at an investor event in November 2024, indicating that the Swiss food & beverage giant will follow suit. “These are unprecedented times facing the coffee industry,” Lavazza Group Chairman, Giuseppe Lavazza, told World Coffee Portal in 2024, acknowledging the additional costs the Italian roaster has faced following record coffee prices and operational costs.

As a hotter climate renders all but the most dedicated coffee producers unable to grow viable commercial crops, by 2050 some coffee could become as expensive as caviar as specialist coffee farmers backed by well-funded boutique operators focus on lower volumes of more profitable high-grade crops.

This dynamic could consign cheap commodity coffee to the past as coffee farmers abandon commodity robusta in favour of more lucrative crops, even as market prices rise.

“Price hikes do not necessarily filter down to farmers, the global coffee industry is worth over $200bn, yet less than 10% of this wealth remains in producing countries,” said Max Milward, Sustainable Sourcing Manager, Fairtrade Foundation, in December 2024.

The next 25 years will likely see the further development of coffee alternatives (see feature on p9) marketed as a solution to supply volatility and sky-high green coffee prices. The nascent industry led by brands such as Atomo, Voyage Foods and Prefer, has already attracted significant investment and could become more attractive to operators seeking a cost-effective alternative to commodity coffee.

“The lesson for the coffee industry is clear: prices must rise to address the supply shortage and align with demand, a fundamental microeconomic principle… To avoid even greater price spikes in the future, a collective willingness to increase prices at every stage of the value chain – from bean to cup – is essential”, said Alejandro Cadena R. Co-founder and CEO of Caravela Coffee in a November 2024 LinkedIn post.


New climate, new coffee origins

A 2022 NASA study concluded that global crop yields of maize, which is primarily grown in North and Central America, West Africa, Central Asia, Brazil, and China, could decrease by up to 24% from 2030 onwards due to current temperature trends. However, the same scenario could lead to a 17% uptick in global wheat production as cooler regions in North America and Central Asia become more temperate.

“Even under optimistic climate change scenarios… global agriculture is facing a new climate reality,” said Jonas Jägermeyr, a climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the report’s lead author.

By 2050, rising global temperatures mean more coffee could be grown in Europe. In 2021, coffee roaster Morettino harvested its first batch of coffee grown in Sicily and continues to improve yields and quality from its 60 Bourbon e Catuai arabica plants on the island. “There is so much potential to be more than a wine or olive country,” Morettino Coffee Producer and Sales Manager, Andrea Morettino, told reporters.

In Portugal, Delta Cafés launched its first coffee range grown in the Azores in 2023. “There won’t be huge volumes, but above all, it will be very, very good coffee,” said CEO Rui Miguel Nabeiro.

Australia is another major coffee consumer with the potential to become a future producer. The country’s strict import quarantine rules make it the only coffee-producing country in the world with no reported diseases or pests, such as leaf rust and coffee borer. Australia’s few dozen coffee plantations face high land and labour costs, but rising prices could make producers more commercially viable in the future, especially for the domestic market.
 

“Roasting coffee at home could become as ubiquitous as microwaving a ready meal”

In California, USA, Frinj Coffee has planted more than 100,000 coffee trees in just under six years. Frinj processes post-harvest coffee, sells green beans, and offers both wholesale and direct-to-consumer products, offering a glimpse into the future of vertically integrated coffee production.

Starbucks, which purchases around 3% of global coffee production annually is also using vertical integration to shore up its vast supply chain. The US giant now manages two coffee farms in Costa Rica and one in Guatemala, where it carries out research on climate resilience and productivity.

With roasting more than doubling the value of green coffee in many cases, in 2050, coffee producers could gain a greater share of the value chain by bringing production in-house.

In Colombia, Medellín-based Pergamino Café has demonstrated how vertical integration could benefit producers by taking a leading role in farming, roasting and retail – including ten branded coffee shops that work with 1,500 coffee producers in the country.

Bringing coffee home

With the cost of a daily coffee shop visit rising, more consumers will seek to emulate barista-quality beverages at home. As technology develops and professional equipment becomes more consumer-centric, the long-term trend towards coffee connoisseurism will lead to greater demystification of professional skills.

Today’s consumers already have a vast array of automated bean-to-cup machines, batch brewers and home grinders at their disposal. There are also several budget home roasters already on the market, such as the affordable Cafemasy Hot Air Coffee Roaster and the higher-end IKAWA Smart Home Coffee Roaster.

Just as home appliance giants, such as De’Longhi and Sage, have capitalised on growing demand for affordable home espresso machines, by 2050 roasting coffee at home could become as ubiquitous as microwaving a ready meal. As the technology becomes more compact and affordable, bean-to-cup machines could incorporate a roaster, ushering in a new at-home green coffee market with direct access to farmers and cooperatives at origin.

New cafés on the block

We are increasingly living in a multipolar world where US economic dominance is being challenged by fast-growing economies, such as BRICS nations China, India and Brazil and rapid development in countries like Saudi Arabia. This shift in the balance of power will lead to greater affluence and rising demand for premium coffee and hospitality in many of today’s developing nations.

From East Asia to the Middle East to East Asia and South America, global giants such as Starbucks, Dunkin’, Costa Coffee and Tim Hortons have introduced branded coffee shop culture to millions around the world over the last 25 years. In the coming decades, young entrepreneurs who have grown up with these international brands will forge their own paths in the coffee industry.

Back in 1999, Starbucks had just opened its first store in China – a country where espresso-based coffee consumption was virtually unknown. Fast-forward 25 years and China is the largest branded coffee shop market on the planet with over 60,000 stores. World Coffee Portal data shows more than 90% of Chinese consumers surveyed now drink hot coffee weekly and 64% consume iced coffee at least once a week.

“China is the most compelling consumer market in the world, not just because of its size, but because it’s the most demanding, the most dynamic and the most digital,” Yongchen Lu, CEO, Tims China, told 5THWAVE in January 2024.
 

“Africa’s working-age population will be larger than both China and India’s by 2050”

India is another vast Asian nation with a fast-growing coffee and hospitality market. More than half of the country’s 1.43 billion citizens are currently under the age of 30 and these young, educated, well-travelled and increasingly affluent consumers are embracing international lifestyle brands while championing a new era of home-grown entrepreneurship.

India’s sizeable coffee growing industry is also a relatively untapped goldmine for numerous coffee startups courting significant investment, including Gurgaon-based Blue Tokai, Mumbai-based abCoffee and Jaipur’s Nothing Before Coffee. “We realised there was a whole next generation just waiting to change India’s coffee scene,” Namrata Asthana, Co-founder of Blue Tokai, told 5THWAVE in 2023.

Premium and specialty coffee culture is also rapidly growing in Saudi Arabia, which is implementing a decades-long programme of economic diversification and over the last 60 years has converted 24,000 square kilometres of desert into fertile land. Rich oil reserves may have funded Saudi Arabia’s rapid development, but the Arab nation is firmly looking towards a future beyond fossil fuels – and coffee looks set to take centre stage in the country’s re-invention.

Over the next ten years, the state-backed Saudi Coffee Company will invest nearly $320m in the country’s domestic coffee growing industry, boosting production from 300 to 2,500 tonnes per year. By 2050, Saudi Arabia, which is already the largest branded coffee shop market in the MENA region with more than 5,100 stores, will be home to a sprawling network of futuristic mega projects with a focus on tourism, entertainment and hospitality.

Scheduled for completion in 2045, NEOM in the Tabuk Province has a total planned area of 26,000 square km and will provide a vast platform for hospitality brands as Saudi Arabia pushes to become a luxury tourism destination. “Visitation is not just about a stay in a hotel… It is all the experiences that sit around that – from transport, transfers, food, experiences, events and retail,” NEOM’s Marketing & Sales Director, Peter Fitzhardinge, told reporters in 2022.

The African continent is also set for significant development over the next 25 years, which will pave the way for major coffee-producing countries to build domestic coffee shop markets and become growth hot spots for international coffee chains.

According to UN data, Africa’s working-age population (ages 15–64) will be larger than both China and India’s by 2050. Significant economic development is on the horizon, with Chinese companies signing $700bn of major infrastructure contracts on the African continent between 2013 and 2023, according to Beijing’s commerce ministry.

Among them is the $5bn Mombasa-Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway in Kenya, which was credited with boosting GDP by 1.5% when the first section opened in 2017. Kenya produces around 46,500 tons of coffee annually and is also home to a nascent coffee shop market. Nairobi-based Java House operates 72 coffee and fast-casual food outlets across its home market, Uganda and Rwanda, making it West Africa’s largest branded coffee chain.
 

“Can hospitality as we know it survive if humans cease to serve each other?”

Nigeria also has an emerging coffee shop market, with operators such as Lagos-based Mai Shayi Coffee Roasters, Café Fresco and Happy Coffee spearheading appreciation for premium coffee experiences. Meanwhile, unlike many of its tea-drinking neighbours, Ethiopia has a strong coffee heritage. Africa’s largest coffee producer already consumes 50% of the coffee it produces, with domestic operators, such as Kaldi’s Coffee, Galini Coffee and Tomoca Coffee laying the foundations for a bustling coffee community in Addis Ababa.


A bright future?

With technology comes the promise of greater operational efficiency, data insights and scalability, but there are also risks. Cloud-based technology and automation can supercharge hospitality businesses with extra resources, but these powerful tools can also leave businesses vulnerable and over-reliant on technology beyond their control.

Perfectly poured espresso at the touch of a button can replace human expertise – but only for as long as the technology is available. Operators relying solely on third-party or subscription-based tech stacks run the risk of their providers suffering security breaches or discontinuing business-critical functions, such as payments and inventory management.

There are similar concerns with AI as more decision-making is removed from human hands, which poses an existential quandary: can hospitality as we know it survive if humans cease to serve each other?

History informs us that the future is often a compromise between aspiration and reality. Amid the climate crisis, geo-political instability and growing inequality, there is a very real danger of coffee becoming a luxury enjoyed solely by a privileged few. Nevertheless, many of today’s coffee businesses are leading the way amid a global push towards a more sustainable future and today’s industry is equipped with both the knowledge and the will to build a better tomorrow.

As a functional pick-me-up, gourmet experience or builder community, the global popularity of coffee in its many forms shows no sign of slowing – and the next generation of progressive businesses is ready to deliver a new era for coffee enjoyed by everyone, anywhere and anytime.
 

This article was first published in Issue 23 of 5THWAVE magazine.

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