Can beanless coffee brands disrupt the commodity market?

Bubbles in brewed coffee shown under a microscope | Photo credit: wrtlbrmft/Shutterstock

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Artificial sweeteners, lab-grown meat and plant-based milk – these are just a few examples of the growing global market for synthetic foods. This trend has largely been driven by consumer demand for alternatives to animal products, particularly from the vegan community, sugar substitutes for individuals with chronic conditions like diabetes or those with allergies.

But what about synthetic coffee? In 2021, US-based Atomo launched the world’s first ‘bean-free’ espresso, and since then other brands have steadily followed suit. However, unlike other alternative foods, this trend isn’t fuelled by mass consumer demand for a coffee alternative.

Instead, it’s driven by a new industry working to address what it says is an existential crisis for commodity coffee driven by the climate emergency and soaring prices.

Time for change?

A 2022 study conducted by the Zurich University of Applied Sciences warned that 50% of land used for coffee cultivation could become unsuitable by 2050 due to climate change – and these effects are already being felt. As extreme weather adversely impacted yields in the world’s largest coffee producers, Brazil and Vietnam, the C price rose 80% in 2024 to breach the $3.39 per pound (0.45kg) high set in 1977.

“Along with the impact of extreme weather, pests and diseases on coffee crops and coffee-growing regions, climate change is also shrinking the amount of land suitable for growing coffee,” says Adam Maxwell, CEO of alternative ingredients brand, Voyage Foods.
 

“Can the coffee industry rethink how it views itself?”
Andy Kleitsh, CEO, Atomo

After producing its first peanut spread alternative in 2021, Voyage Foods raised $52m in a Series A funding round in May 2024 and launched a ‘bean-free’ coffee product aimed at US foodservice operators and consumer packaged goods (CPG) manufacturers in the same year.

“Even in a moderate warming scenario, we will lose half of the area coffee is grown on and up to 80% under more dire forecasts. While it’s true climate change is also making new regions of the world more suitable for coffee cultivation, those regions don’t have the decades or even centuries of knowledge of this crop,” Maxwell adds.

Jake Berber, Co-founder and CEO of Singapore-based synthetic coffee brand, Prefer, echoes this sentiment.

“Many crops, food and beverages are under threat from climate change. We believe that we can use fermentation to essentially recreate the flavours of these products in a more affordable and sustainable way than traditional agriculture currently,” he says.

For Andy Kleitsch, CEO of Atomo, the motivation to develop the world’s first bean-free espresso brand came after meeting food microbiologist Jarret Stopforth, who was convinced he could reverse engineer coffee.
 

“The future of mass market coffee is beanless”
Jake Berber, Co-founder and CEO, Prefer

“That idea was simply too compelling to ignore and I immediately went deep into coffee,” Kleitsch recalls.

“I went to Q Grader training, roaster training, and toured coffee farms in the Amazon in Peru to see where deforestation was happening. I witnessed first-hand the plight of many coffee farmers, which was an eye-opening experience. From that moment on, I knew beanless coffee checked all the boxes for me – and if we were successful, we could protect the last remaining wild places on earth.”

A factory worker inspects a new batch of Prefer’s bean-free coffee product in Singapore | Photo credit: Prefer

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A question of taste

While the sustainability case for synthetic coffee is compelling, just how can upcycled ingredients replicate the intricate sensory profiles of the real thing?

“We started by reverse-engineering the coffee bean and carefully analysing which compounds deliver the coffee experience we all love,” says Kleitsch, who oversaw the process at Atomo.

“We then searched for those compounds and their precursors in naturally farmed ingredients. A common misconception is that we simply ‘bleep and bloop’ atoms together, but this couldn’t be further from the truth. We use real ingredients grown by farmers, like strawberries and millet, and we’re always striving to improve. We’re now in our fifth year of development, and last year our scientists created over 500 versions of the formula.”

That pace of innovation has turned investor heads, with Atomo raising more than $50m and signing a major deal with Japanese beverage giant Suntory Holdings in 2023.

After securing its first major coffee shop partnership with Bluestone Lane the same year, in 2024 Atomo unveiled a 33,500sq ft US ‘roastery’ capable of producing 1,800 tons of its product annually.

Jake Berber, whose start-up Prefer raised $2m in 2024, carried out a similarly lengthy R&D process, including a year testing hundreds of combinations of feedstocks and microbes.

“At a very high level, we’re looking to create pyrazines and chlorogenic acids, which are some of the chemical compounds that are widely known to give coffee its coffee sensory profile.

“We looked into how we can create those aroma volatiles in a different way using fermentation to break down our feedstock. We implement microbes, fungi and yeast that are able to recreate these flavours, and then we roast it so it goes through a mild reaction. Finally, we grind it up into a format that is readily integrated into the operations of coffee companies,” he says.

According to Berber, those efforts have yielded a product that after fermentation and roasting replicates the same aroma volatiles found in coffee.

“We’ve landed on a nutty, chocolatey flavour that people love and we’re constantly working on new versions,” he adds.

Moreover, Berber says that the majority of consumers can’t tell the difference between Prefer’s 50/50 synthetic and real coffee blend in blind taste tests, a crucial milestone as the brand prepares to expand its presence in Asia’s vast food & beverage industry.

“As our R&D continues to improve, the blend will continue to get closer and closer to the consumption experience of real coffee.”

Batches of Coachella Latte Blend on the production line at Atomo’s 33,500sq ft US production facility | Photo credit: Atomo

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A new coffee climate?

As the environmental challenges facing the coffee industry become increasingly pronounced, a factory-made product that can convincingly mimic the real thing presents itself as a sustainable alternative with significantly less carbon emissions and farmland requirements.

“Our bean-free coffee reduces CO2 emissions by about five times compared to conventional coffee farming. We use upcycled ingredients, which helps reduce food waste, and our process requires less water and land. We’re conducting a life cycle analysis with a third party in Q1 2025 to make this data official,” says Prefer’s Berber.

Andy Kleitsch also points to Atomo’s sustainability credentials as a product that significantly reduces carbon emissions by using upcycled ingredients.

“One of our biggest advantages is mitigating food waste. The majority of our ingredients are upcycled, which allows us to deliver a coffee that generates 83% less carbon than conventional coffee and doesn’t contribute to deforestation,” he says.

However, Kleitsch also believes that in the long term, coffee alternatives could also significantly reduce coffee-linked deforestation. “Beanless coffee would need to capture approximately 3-5% of the coffee market every year to offset all coffee growth that would typically increase deforestation. The only thing holding this reality back is the adoption by coffee companies. Can the coffee industry rethink how it views itself? Just look at one of the fastest-growing segments – ready-to-drink (RTD). Do you see any beans? No. We’ve moved beyond the bean to coffee as an experience.”
 

“Our target is mass-market commodity coffee”
Adam Maxwell, CEO, Voyage Foods

Synthetic coffee may seem like the perfect solution to many of the profound challenges facing operators and producers, but could a cheaper and purportedly more sustainable alternative pose a threat to the coffee industry at large?

Adam Maxwell clarifies that Voyage Foods’ coffee alternative is more of an additive than a direct competitor aimed primarily at the commodity coffee market.

“We see our bean-free coffee products as complementary to traditional coffee, not a replacement for premium or specialty coffee. Our target is mass-market commodity coffee, which is consumed by the vast majority of coffee drinkers. That’s where the most environmental harm occurs, and where we believe we can make the greatest impact.”

With the global instant coffee market projected to reach $60.5bn by 2030, it is feasible that many coffee consumers prioritising convenience and value could switch to an alternative with ease. As coffee operators contend with record-high coffee prices, Maxwell says Voyage’s bean-free coffee can be up to 40% cheaper than the commodity equivalent.

“As the demand for coffee continues to rise, we see our product helping to stabilise the market by buffering supply chain issues. Given the current dynamics of the coffee industry, food and beverage suppliers are understandably concerned about supply chain volatility,” he says.

Prefer’s Jake Berber also believes synthetic coffee will have a significant impact on mass-market coffee by reducing prices for both operators and consumers.

“We can offer a more affordable way to enjoy the same taste for people who want the coffee experience but can no longer afford the rising prices. That’s really our target customer and focus.”

Synthetic coffee has the potential to significantly reduce costs for businesses purchasing large quantities of commodity-grade coffee. To this end, Prefer’s goal is to become an ingredient supplier for large FMCGs producing coffee blends, instant and ready-to-drink products.

“We start the conversation at 10% lower than the commodity price of coffee. Depending on volume, we adjust the exact price based on the customer,” he says.

Atomo’s Kleitsch also believes food & beverage manufacturers and operators could benefit from greater supply chain stability by going bean-free.

“Securing enough coffee, finding the right taste profile, quality control, variable pricing and complying with deforestation regulations. We remove all the variability and uncertainty, and now we can deliver a beanless ground coffee that tastes great and is less expensive than conventional coffee.”

Atomo is now seeking to work with more conventional coffee brands to further develop its 50/50 blended product. “To help save the planet we need to work together and create a coffee future that nurtures consumers, coffee brands and the planet,” Kleitsch adds.

Looking to the future, Berber predicts that bean-free coffee will eventually become mainstream as the price of commodity coffee continues to rise.

“I would say the future of mass-market coffee is beanless. I think [traditional coffee] will become more of a celebratory product, like champagne, rather than the daily consumption habit is today. There will always be a market for specialty coffee using traditional coffee beans but that is not our customer. Our focus is on providing the mass market with a delicious and affordable coffee experience.”

A brave new world?

For all their similarities to synthetic coffee alternatives will likely struggle to win hearts and minds among specialty coffee professionals and consumers. Nevertheless, it’s clear that these leading brands have the commodity market firmly in their sights. With commodity coffee increasingly losing its low-cost allure due to higher prices driven by global warming, the emerging synthetic coffee market stands to make strong gains where coffee is served as a functional beverage rather than a gourmet experience.

From acorn to chicory and dandelion root, coffee substitutes have long catered to a niche consumer base. However, these next-generation synthetic coffee products are a sober reminder that the commodity coffee industry is charting an increasingly unsustainable course when it comes to sustainability and costs. 
 

This article was first published in Issue 23 of 5THWAVE magazine.

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